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Thread: Can We Trust UMNO? Elections: Understanding UMNO/BN's Strategy

   
   
       
  1. #1
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    Can We Trust UMNO? Elections: Understanding UMNO/BN's Strategy

    Elections: Understanding UMNO/BN's Strategy
    UMNO knows that they have lost it and they are getting extremely worried. Considering past election results we can see that UMNO/BN enjoys a 6% vote incumbency advantage going into the elections. (From gerrymandering, misallocation of voters, phantom voters, postal voters, SPR, police, govt machinery biased, even outright cheating and bribery). This is a huge handicap against the opposition. Imagine you have a footbal team down 6 goals at the start of the match, with the referee and the linesmen against you. That is why UMNO/BN has always won the GE over the past 53 years!

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    Moving forward, UMNO has accepted that they cannot rely on MCA, MIC and Gerakan anymore. So they have decided to dump them, go direct to the voters and concentrate on Sabah and Sarawak. It is possible that if UMNO is still successful in the next GE, they will drop the 3 Peninsular Malaysia stooges (MCA, MIC & Gerakan) and team up with Sabah and Sarawak. It will still possible for them to cobble together a working majority with 115 to 120 seats.

    Their strategy here on is becoming clearer, using memes.

    1. Outsource the dirty work to PERKASA and other UMNO-sponsored NGOs. Their role is to generate a lot of heat and distraction over race and religion to create fear and distract the people from their real strategy. So far, the fear tactics hasn't worked that well, even with cow-heads and church fire-bombings. The distracting is creating a backlash which UMNO is starting to feel uncomfortable with. They are now trying another tactic: Leak stories about purchase of illegal arms by shadowy militias in Malaysia.

    2. Outsource the image make-over and branding to the Jews - APCO. This has the advantage of buying into the good books of the US. Mobilize all the msm, bloggers, ngos to support them. Focus exclusively on 1Malaysia, which most of us know, is merely spin. But a significant % still fall for it.


    3. Typically, in a general election, the voter support between BN and PR is 30% each with 40% fence-sitters in the middle. BN enjoys an incumbency advantage of 6% which means that BN has 36% support, PR 30% and Fence-sitters reduced to 34%. The fight is over this 34%. PR has to win 60% of the fence-sitters to get a simple majority, a very fragile one.

    Typical BN vs PR Vote Distribution during General Elections

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    The BN’s strategy is then very simple - keep the fence-sitters neutral. Stress to them that civil society must remain non-partisan in order for their message to reach the other side. Either encourage them not vote or get them to spoil their vote. The more the fence-sitters remain neutral, the bigger the advantage for BN. That is all UMNO needs to win as they have a 6% in-built advantage already. (To secure a safe winning margin, Pakatan has to win over more than 75% of the fence-sitters. That is a monumental task.)

    4. We can see these strategies at work at PEMANDU and how the spinning is going on.

    4.1 Lower and Working Classes:
    Pay attention to the 2 major segments of the lower and working class that was ignored in the past - the rural area and urban commuters.

    The spin now is: Look! We have increased the development by a factor as much as 10! Don't look now! But knowing wastage, gross inefficiency and blatant corruption, we will only get 1/10th of the value that we expect, if they are to work at all. From past records, we know most don't work. Performance has never been the intention. In fact, if it works, it is by accident.

    PEMANDU finally propose Increase in Rural Basic Infrastructure Budgets.

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    PEMANDU propose Urban Transport Project

    4


    End of Part 1 of 3
    py

  2. #2
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    Re: Elections: Understanding UMNO/BN's Strategy, Part 2

    Part 2 of 3: PEMANDU Propose Bus Express Transit

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    This is basically to appease a large group that in the past, they ignored in their arrogant belief that these people have no choice but to support UMNO/BN. In any case, they believed that these simple folks can be bribed with a couple of bucks. As they say, the worm is turning.

    This change of heart over the 2 neglected classes came about because of a strong opposition which is growing stronger. And UMNO/BN is trying to buy their way back into their good books. The question is: Can you trust UMNO? Harapkan-Pagar-Pagar-Makan-Padi and here.

    Or will they revert to form, the moment they return to power? Don't forget, no less an authority like Minister Idris Jala has warned that by 2019, Malaysia will become bankrupt! The choice for these people is very clear - Do you change now while you still have a chance, or do you change when the country goes bankrupt? It won't be very pretty then.

    Here is a reminder:

    In the eyes of UMNO/BN, you are only a Rat

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    Foreign labour are brought in to suppress local wages.

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    4.2 Be Neutral: There are 3 sub-themes here.

    a. BN NGOs (MCA INSAP, Gerakan SEDAR, MIC Yayasan Strategik SOCIAL): UMNO will remain in power. We have to remain neutral so that we can continue to engage with them and curb their extremist tendencies. The story is: You need us around to tone UMNO down. PR can't do it. Continue to vote for us - MCA, GERAKAN, MIC. This is quite a seductive line.

    b. The 3rd Force: This group consists of many sincere and dedicated activists. But the net effect is to dilute the strength of PR as it is designed to draw away potential support from PR. We have a situation here where a group of people committed to help the people are actually doing harm to the people's aspirations towards a 2-Party State. Such an outcome cannot be lost to the leaders of the 3rd Force. So we have to ask ourselves a question: Why are they doing something that effectively helps UMNO/BN?

    If they really wish to push for a 2-Party State, we would suggest that a more effective strategy, is to park themselves under PR as is done here,
    Facebook and YouTube..

    4.3 PEMANDU: We must love each other: Moving from Tolerating to Accepting and finally, Celebrating.

    8

    End of Part 2 of 3
    py

  3. #3
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    Re: Elections: Understanding UMNO/BN's Strategy, Part 3

    Part 3 of 3: In case you have forgotten, Love is the last thing on their minds when they did this.

    Perak Power Grab May 2009

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    Kugan's burial

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    5. Fallback Position: In case, despite all their efforts, UMNO still falls. Play the Compassion Line -

    Forgive and Forget.

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    It is important that the people must always remain vigilent. If we let evil slip in, it is very hard to eradicate it. Therefore We can FORGIVE but We Must Never Forget!.

    And, In the Face of Evil, We Cannot Remain Neutral!
    py

  4. #4
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    Re: Elections: Understanding UMNO/BN's Strategy -- Gerakan's "Good Cop, Bad Cop" Routine.

    Can you see how the UMNO poodles are playing the game? Good cop, Bad cop. We won't fall for this again.

    Nazri's "Malaysian first" statement resonates with Rakyat , Gerakan



    Sept 21, 2010



    Gerakan supports Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Datuk Seri Mohd Nazri Aziz’s open stand that "he is a Malaysian first" , saying his said sentiment resonates with majority of moderate and fair-minded Malaysians of all races and religions.



    Gerakan deputy secretary-general Liang Teck Meng said Nazri was also forthright to confront media that tried to undermine Prime Minister Najib's 1Malaysia policies.



    “Nazri's remarks are consistent with the wishes and aspirations of the majority of Malaysians that the spirit of goodwill, friendship, mutual respect, understanding and co-existence of all Malaysians should prevail in the country,” said Liang in a statement.



    He said it was all parties, including media must be committed to promote 1Malaysia concept and not to undermine it.



    Liang said Gerakan strongly believed that every citizen should speak in one voice for 1Malaysia and against any form of extremism.



    “This is the way forward for Malaysia. We should not subscribe to extremism of all forms, regardless of race or religion,” he said, adding that what the people asked for are social justice and fairness, based on non-racial line.



    In an Open letter to Awang Selamat, a columnist with Utusan Malaysia, Nazri said his boss is the Prime Minister and he will support him even if he loses his job.



    Nazri also said “he is a Malaysian first and Malay next” and questioned whether any bigot has a problem with remark.



    ends

    --
    Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia
    Media and Communication Department
    Level 6, Menara PGRM
    Jalan Pudu Ulu
    Cheras, 56100
    Kuala Lumpur

    Phone: 03- 92832380
    Fax: 03- 92832387
    Gerakan website: http://gerakan.org.my/
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    Twitter: http://twitter.com/gerakanmalaysia
    py

  5. #5
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    Re: Elections: Understanding UMNO/BN's Strategy -- Gerakan's "Good Cop, Bad Cop" Routine.

    More "Good cop, bad cap" routine.

    Abraham Lincoln said: You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.

    But you can't fault UMNO/BN for trying.


    Political plots and ploys — Selena Tay
    September 18, 2010

    SEPT 18 — The recent statement by Umno secretary-general Tengku Adnan Tengku Mansor makes it seem as if Umno is distancing itself from right-wing group Perkasa.

    If this is really the intention of Umno, well and good. But knowing Umno, this statement should be taken with a pinch of salt. However, before the Chinese and Indians could rejoice at this statement, Dr Mahathir Mohamad dampened the joy by saying that Umno could ill-afford to ignore Perkasa. http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/b...ys-selena-tay/
    py

  6. #6
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    Re: Elections: Understanding UMNO/BN's Strategy - Helen Ang dissecting Idris Jala's Bullshit

    'Celebrate diversity', the Idris Jala trope
    Columnists
    Written by Helen Ang
    Tuesday, 21 September 2010 12:20

    The Christian cabinet minister Idris Jala prefers race and religious differences considered as "polarities to be managed" rather than problems to be solved. He talks of the North Pole and South Pole balancing the Earth on its axis as an analogy of how to arrive at equilibrium.

    Idris forgets that the two geographical 'poles' are not lopsided, unlike his metaphorical 'polarities' (word meaning two opposite tendencies, opinions) between the Malaysian citizenry belonging to different races and religions. While there may be antipodean opinions, it is only on one side that the opinion makers are threatened with police action.

    Take for example, this latest agitation by the blogger Big Dog -- who is Mukhriz Mahathir's loudhailer and fang barer; the Umno deputy minister in turn who is a backer of Perkasa. On Sept 16 Malaysia Day, Big Dog again called for Umno ministers to "take action against personalities like Lim Guan Eng, Karpal Singh, Theresa Kok, Helen Ang and most recently [to cause 'offence'] Wee Meng Chee (Namewee)".

    Note that the police crackdown is sought against members of the Chinese and Indian minorities (as per the name list above). The racial skew does not bespeak of polarities equal in strength as would be in the case of the two poles of a magnet.

    Note too that once before, a representation of 10 non-Muslim ministers had petitioned the then prime minister to redress the acute bullying suffered by adherents of the minority religions. Yet within the blink of an eye, the 'mighty' ministerial delegation -- after a little dissuasion -- withdrew its protest, tail between their legs.

    If there are polarities, the two are not "managed" (to quote Idris's desired wish) but it is one polarity -- the ultra sensitive one -- that harasses and intimidates the other, easily cowed one.

    Action speaks louder than words

    Also in the plenary session at UCSI's 'National Congress on Integrity', Idris in his commemoration of Malaysia Day said: "The way to become 1Malaysia is not through government policy but through behavioural change".

    But who is it asked to change their behaviour? Idris as a member of the Najib administration should look in his own backyard first. Isn't it the keris-kissing Perkasa that should behave better? Is Idris's boss looking at all into making Perkasa behave?

    And going by the Idris formulation, government policies should be left unchanged even though their inherent discrimination is the fundamental reason why 1Malaysia is stillborn.

    His keynote address is full of 'Let's-all-sing-Kumbaya' soundbites but short on substance as he does not address the hard issues. His is only a softsell, like the Yasmin Ahmad Petronas ads that used to be aired every Merdeka anniversary.

    Idris calls for the different communities to move beyond 'tolerating' each other to 'acceptance' of our differences. From 'acceptance', Idris preaches that the next and top rung of the ladder for us step up to is "to celebrate each other's differences".

    But first, let's look at who Idris is preaching to. The entire day's proceedings where he was feted was conducted in English -- from emcee to guests-of-honour opening words to VIP presentators to roundtable participants to workshop speakers to moderators to the observers summing up.

    Although a Malaysia Day function, the national language was not heard except in one or two questions from the floor and the speakers' replies.

    It was an English-speaking audience that day listening to Idris. Demographically, only half the country's population is English 'literate' (in the sense of accessing media in the language). Hence, Idris was making his pitch at a banquet room urban crowd that is unrepresentative of the larger Malaysia. The Minister, despite his Muslim-sounding name is really a Sarawak Kelabit, and reputedly very popular with churchgoers.

    Although Malays are the country's majority, they were discernibly the handful minority present at the event and thus the orthodox Muslim viewpoint missing in the audience.

    Anyhow, to evaluate whether Idris's pontification of "celebrating diversity" is realistic or not, a review of controversial episodes occurring the past week is in order.

    Wanting to be seen as liberals

    As recently as Saturday (Sept 18.), the Muslim missionary organization Pertubuhan Kebajikan dan Dakwah Islamiah SeMalaysia (Pekida) urged the government to take stern action against crematoriums.

    Pekida special affairs chairman Shahril Abdul Aziz told reporters: "We no longer wish to [permit] this burning of corpses because it is a torture, whether carried out by traditional means or in the open air. The authorities must think of an alternative as well as introduce tight laws if this practice [cremation] is to be allowed to continue".

    Although the Muslims customarily bury their dead, Pekida has no right to want to put a curb on other religions that cremate their departed.

    A day prior to that on Friday, human rights body Suaram circulated a press release saying the government has issued a stop-work order on the construction of a church in a Temiar village. The church in Pos Pasik, Kelantan is merely a small building made of bamboo(left) which the Orang Asli parishers had wanted to upgrade.

    Of course, the question uppermost in the minds of Malaysians is that if it were a surau or mosque to be erected instead, would the villagers have encountered the same obstruction?

    It is fine and dandy for those supporting Malaysian First to make a blatant public show of how open-minded they are. But in real life, we're living in a Muslim country and not in Los Angeles.

    Take for instance, the 'diversity' presented by fringe communities such as the 'lesbians, gays, bisexuals and transgenders' or LGBT. When reality bites, syariah-compliance means that religious laws governing sexual mores still need to be observed by those LGBTs who are Malay.

    All our 14 states have syariah, but we'll use the capital city for an example. Under the Syariah Criminal Offences (Federal Territories) Act 1997, any male person guillty of liwat (sexual relations between male persons) can face one or a combination of the following penalties -- fine up to RM5,000, jail up to three years, whipping up to six strokes.

    Musahaqah or sexual relations between female persons carries the same penalty as liwat. Same-gender sexual acts entail stiff criminal sanction.

    Meanwhile, transgenders can be fined up to RM1,000, jailed up to one year, and/or both, or in other words, an effeminate man wearing a skirt is deemed a criminal also. Last year, a fatwa was issued by the National Fatwa Council against pengkid (tomboys).

    So while a segment of urban professionals and affluent suburbanites might find the diversity of sexual orientation acceptable and even something they are willing to celebrate, in the public sphere, laws prevail.

    And not only syariah but the Malaysian Penal Code too. Lest we forget, Anwar Ibrahim is on trial for sodomy and charged under secular law.

    Saudi Arabia is irreproachable?

    A test for the liberals, then, is whether there is any parity and consistency in their advocacy.

    The English-speaking middle-class are cosy in their safe and snug Ketuanan-protected political correctness when they lash out at against those they call 'Islamophobes'.

    But these same non-Muslim liberals fail to point out that Saudi Arabia -- the holy of holies land of Islam -- does not allow religious diversity at all.

    The 2010 annual report of the United States commission on International Religious Freedom noted: "... the Saudi government persists in banning all forms of public religious expression other than that of the government’s own interpretation of one school of Sunni Islam."

    The report further says that "The Saudi government continues to engage in an array of severe violations of human rights as part of its repression of freedom of religion or belief", and adding that Saudi Arabia has been designated as a 'country of particular concern' by the US State Department annually since 2004.

    Meanwhile, according to the Freedom House's 'Freedom in the World 2010' survey, Saudi Arabia has for the past 10 consecutive years been given the survey’s worst possible rating for political rights denied its people.

    Freedom House noted that "Religious freedom does not exist in Saudi Arabia. All Saudis are required by law to be Muslims, and the government prohibits the public practice of any religions other than Islam." It also noted that the Saudi "regime has blocked access to over 400,000 websites that are considered immoral or politically sensitive".

    The day has still not come when our Malaysian liberal elites have the nerve to be as critical of abuses in the Islamic world as they are in their ad hominem attacks on Christian conservatives. The same imbalance applies to their defence of those pushing the boundaries of 'diversity' ala Idris Jala.

    Not too long ago, the establishment of a gay church in Kuala Lumpur caused some consternation. Nonetheless, a number of self-professed heterosexuals -- who pontificate that 'love thy neighbour' (be he/she gay or lesbian) is God's first commandment -- had declared themselves more than willing to embrace differences.

    In fact, they had argued vehemently in support of this contentious gay church. And not only that, they were quick to label anyone voicing reservations as being 'homophobic', 'bigoted' and 'full of hate'. This is the quite-typical vocabulary of those whose narrow argumentative itinerary gives the lie to their liberal pretensions.

    The million-ringgit challenge remains whether these celebrants of diversity would be just as vocal and enthusiastic in their support if it was a homosexual imam who had wanted to start a gay mosque. cpiasia.
    py

  7. #7
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    Can you trust UMNO?

    A bit long. You only need to ask yourself one question: Can we trust UMNO? The answer should dictate your actions from now onwards. It is always helpful to look at events through the lens of history. Things become much clearer then.

    1960: Replacement of the Emergency Regulations Ordinance 1948 with the Internal Security Act 1960: The first Prime Minister of Malaysia, Tunku Abdul Rahman, defined the purpose of the act as to "be used solely against the communists...My Cabinet colleagues and I gave a solemn promise to Parliament and the nation that the immense powers given to the government under the ISA would never be used to stifle legitimate opposition and silence lawful dissent". The third Prime Minister, Tun Hussein Onn, stated at the same time that his administration had enforced the act only with a view to curbing communist activity, and not to repress "lawful political opposition and democratic citizen activity".[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interna..._Act_(Malaysia)
    1963: Local government elections were first held in 1951 before Merdeka but abolished during the Confrontation with Indonesia, which objected to the 1963 formation of Malaysia.

    The then-Prime Minister Tunku Abdul Rahman promised they would be restored after the situation improved. http://bersih.org/?p=2960

    Putrajaya says third vote will cause racial imbalance http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/m...ial-imbalance/
    1971 The Malaysian New Economic Policy (NEP or DEB for Dasar Ekonomi Baru in Malay), was an ambitious and controversial socio-economic restructuring affirmative action program launched by the Malaysian government in 1971 under the then Prime Minister Tun Abdul Razak. It is still running and now renamed as the Never Ending Policy. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysi...conomic_Policy
    1987 Oct 27 Operation Lalang: Mahathir detained 104 political opponents and activists. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Lalang. Now he claims that it was carried out by the police despite his misgivings. http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/201...write-history/
    1988: MCP Road to Peace Accord with Malaysian Government allowing right of return of former communists. Up till now, Chin Peng, the communist leader is not allowed to return. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communi...o_peace_accord
    1990 Wawasan 2020. Mahathir - Hopefully the Malaysian who is born today and in the years to come will be the last generation of our citizens who will be living in a country that is called 'developing'. The ultimate objective that we should aim for is a Malaysia that is a fully developed country by the year 2020.

    What, you might rightly ask, is 'a fully developed country'? Do we want to be like any particular country of the present 19 countries that are generally regarded as 'developed countries'? Do we want to be like the United Kingdom, like Canada, like Holland, like Sweden, like Finland, like Japan? To be sure, each of the 19, out of a world community of more than 160 states, has its strengths. But each also has its fair share of weaknesses. Without being a duplicate of any of them we can still be developed. We should be a developed country in our own mould.

    Malaysia should not be developed only in the economic sense. It must be a nation that is fully developed along all the dimensions: economically, politically, socially, spiritually, psychologically and culturally. We must be fully developed in terms of national unity and social cohesion, in terms of our economy, in terms of social justice, political stability, system of government, quality of life, social and spiritual values, national pride and confidence. http://www.wawasan2020.com/vision/
    1999 General Elections: Mahathir accepted the 17 Suqiu appeals as he considered it reasonable. Immediately after the elections, he recanted and condemned the Suqiu promoters as extremists - http://howsy.blogspot.com/2006/07/so...out-suqiu.html
    2003: Work with me, don't work for me, Badawi.
    2010: Najib: 1Malaysia!
    2011: They are going for our EPF now... http://www.tindakmalaysia.com/showth...=8208#post8208
    When you are finally tired of all the bullshit, here's some stuff to entertain you - http://www.malpro.com.my/
    py

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