Results 1 to 2 of 2

Thread: Why BN/UMNO Will Win PRU13

   
   
       
  1. #1
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Posts
    12,843

    Why BN/UMNO Will Win PRU13

    Why BN/UMNO Will Win PRU13

    LETTERS/SURAT
    Sunday, 01 May 2011


    An alternative coalition or party that can actually win needs to convince all Malaysian voters, BOTH Bumi and non-Bumi that their concerns and worries are recognized and will be addressed. It has to be Malay-led, not because of Ketuanan Melayu, but because of Ketuanan Majority.
    By Mazlan Manaf

    BN/UMNO will win PRU13 and continue to rule Malaysia for the foreseeable future. What does this mean for Malaysia, and what will it take to change this?

    The Sarawak elections have come and gone. As usual, the hype and hope of the opposition prior to polling day swiftly gave way to the reality of BN’s unassailable hold on the electorate. Electoral fraud? Phantom votes? Controlled media? Or is there a more fundamental reason?

    There is one thing that those hoping to for a change in Putrajaya have to acknowledge and realize. It’s a very simple fact, but one which seems to have escaped many, judging by the comments and opinions expressed in blogs and various other channels. The fact is that Malays/Bumis make up more than 60 percent of the population.

    UMNO, PBB, PAS and Malay PKR parliamentarians occupy 131 of the 222 seat parliament. The numbers mean that Malay votes determine who occupies Putrajaya. Those aspiring to the seat of government simply need to win Malay votes. No two ways about it.

    Is politics necessarily race based? Can you have non-race based politics or political parties in Malaysia? At the moment, unfortunately not. We are a race based society and politics can only reflect society.

    BN/UMNO’s stranglehold on the Malay vote stems from its monopoly position in championing the “Malay cause”. To its credit, and perhaps by necessity being the party in power, it has made compromises to ensure that the other component parties and therefore the coalition do get some support from the other communities, particularly when facing PAS.

    Isn’t there currently a Malay opposition? There is PAS of course. But PAS seems unable to remold itself into a viable alternative to UMNO. It focuses on too narrow band of issues. It’s a party you vote in for the next world, rather than this one. The so-called “Erdoganists” in the party do not appear to be succeeding in making any significant changes.

    What about PKR? Unfortunately PKR derives support from the popularity of certain personalities rather than issues. Personalities are vulnerable to video clips and various other charges, created or otherwise. Most significantly, PKR have been very vague and evasive on “Malay” issues. A few seats can be won, but in its current mode, it’s very unlikely that significant inroads can be made into UMNO’s support base.

    So where will another 50 years of BN/UMNO rule take us? Current demographic, political and social trends will in all likelihood make BN/UMNO more “Malay”, while the opposition will be increasingly Chinese or non-Bumi.

    Society and therefore politics will become more polarized. The cabinet will be composed of UMNO bigwigs and hand-picked non-Malay senators. Money politics and all the other organizational ills of UMNO will infect the government. Law enforcement, the judiciary, GLC’s, public universities and all institutions will not be immune from this plague.

    The decay of our institutions will impede our quest to move up the value chain. We will be overtaken economically by Thailand, Indonesia and Sri Lanka. The fall in global rankings of our academic institutions will translate into a further fall in our global competitiveness. Those with the means, the qualifications and the skills, both Bumis and non-Bumis alike will seek greener pastures elsewhere, most popular destinations being Australia and Singapore. Not a pretty picture of the future regardless of whether you are Bumi or not.

    Is a Malay opposition viable? Really the question here is, has UMNO done well in championing the “Malay cause”? What exactly is the “Malay cause”? The “Malay cause” that really matters is the economic position of the Malays collectively relative to the others. Issues of Malay language, culture and religion are not nearly as important, in part because none of these issues has as much unanimity amongst the Malays.

    It is quite easy to demonstrate that BN/UMNO have failed miserably on this score. On a modest target of 30% wealth for 60% of the population, after 40 years of the NEP these sole champions of the “Malay cause” have reportedly succeeded only in bringing it up to 20%. That means on average, the Malays average wealth level is one-sixth of the others.

    TDM puts the blame on the Malays themselves. He conveniently forgets to mention of course the silliness of some of his programs, the worse being the creation of “towering Malays”. He also demonstrates very high tolerance to those who undermined and abused the various schemes, and plundered billions, contributing significantly to the failure.

    Perhaps to mask its failure, BN/UMNO promoted through PERKASA the “Ketuanan Melayu” concept. To put it simply, what Ibrahim Ali is trying to tell Malays is that it’s ok that others are on average six times more wealthy than you, you are still the TUAN. It’s ok that others are succeeding in business internationally, and driving the economy domestically, you are still the TUAN. Never mind if you have a degree from a local university, and are working as a caddy in a golf club in Kuala Lumpur as you can’t get a better job because you don’t speak English, you are still the TUAN.

    Never mind if some cronies have made off with billions and stashed it overseas, you Malays in the low cost apartments in the cities, in the kampongs, and in the FELDA settlements, you are still the TUAN and nothing can ever change that. The issue of “we were here first and you are pendatang” diverts attention away from the more relevant “you are on average six times richer than us and this imbalance needs to be addressed”. Worse still, this diversion further alienates the non-Bumis.

    An alternative coalition or party that can actually win needs to convince all Malaysian voters, BOTH Bumi and non-Bumi that their concerns and worries are recognized and will be addressed. It has to be Malay-led, not because of Ketuanan Melayu, but because of Ketuanan Majority.

    It is not enough to criticize, better ideas must be presented. A rational analysis of the NEP could surely identify the successes and failures as a basis for future programs. A similar program could also be proposed for Indians, as they are also behind. Progress and prosperity for all must be the call, complete with programs for achieving this. Advocating meritocracy is simply not enough, and smacks of a refusal to recognize racial economic imbalance as an issue of national concern. A delicate balance has to be maintained to ensure that affirmative action programs do not deprive any community of career and business advancement.

    In other words opposition parties have to rebrand themselves as viable and more attractive alternatives, as opposed to being mere pressure groups for a narrow segment of society or a narrow band of causes. Clear stances have to be stated and formed from a “ruling party” perspective, and not just from the narrow perspective of one community.

    Compromises have to be made, and there has to be convergence on difficult issues. Compromise does not mean glossing over and evading issues such as current racial imbalances, vernacular schools versus integration, issues on language and education. This will only serve to maintain the status quo. In this regard, the Pakatan Rakyat Common Platform document fails miserably, as it is simply a collection of motherhood statements and devoid of substance. Proponents of “needs based affirmative action” need to clearly spell out exactly what is meant.

    Of course making a clear stance on controversial issues is politically risky. But being the opposition and not in power, apart from the MP allowances of a few leaders, what is there to lose? On the other hand, without such initiative and without a viable alternative path, all of us have a whole future to lose.
    py

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Posts
    12,843
    Why Pakatan Rakyat is NOT going to form the next federal government
    THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

    Wednesday, 11 May 2011 Super Admin

    This is not a new subject matter. I have written about this so many times in the past. Some of you may remember my article entitled “Votes do not translate into seats”? Well, today, I have no choice but to repeat what I have already told you before.

    THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

    Raja Petra Kamarudin

    My friend Nat Tan has hit the nail on the head in his article entitled 60pc of vote, 93pc of seats? published in The Malaysian Insider today (which you can read here: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/o...93pc-of-seats/)

    A similar article written by Nia Nymue in his Blog entitled PAP won 90% of seats but only 60% of votes can be read here: http://nianymue.wordpress.com/2011/0...y-60-of-votes/

    They were of course talking about the recent Singapore elections. But they could easily have also been talking about the Malaysian elections. And this is what I want to talk about, again, today -- in spite of sounding like I am repeating myself too many times.

    On 11th May 1969 (two days before ‘May 13’), the ruling party (then the Alliance Party of Umno, MCA and MIC) won less than 50% of the votes. Yet it managed to form the federal government because it still won more the 50% of the seats in Parliament (66% of the seats to be exact).

    In 1974, the newly formed ruling coalition called Barisan Nasional won less than two-thirds of the votes (60.7%) but it still won 88% of the seats in Parliament.

    In 1978, the votes for the ruling coalition dropped to 57.2% but it sill won 84% of the seats in Parliament.

    In 1982, the votes for the ruling coalition were still below two-thirds (60.5%) but it managed to win 86% of the seats in Parliament.

    In 1986, the ruling coalition’s votes dropped to 55.8% but it won 84% of the seats in Parliament.

    In 1990, the ruling coalition’s votes dropped even further to 53.4% but it still won more than two-thirds of the seats (71%).

    In 1995, the ruling coalition ‘recovered’ by winning 65.2% of the votes which gave them 84% of the seats in Parliament.

    1999 was a blow to the ruling coalition. That was the era of Reformasi and the Anwar Ibrahim ‘Sodomy 1’ crisis. In November of that year the ruling coalition won only 56.5% of the votes. Yet it won 77% of the seats in Parliament.

    2004 was the best performance in history for the ruling coalition. It won more than 90% of the seats in Parliament. But it managed this on less than two-thirds of the votes (63.9%). So the best Barisan Nasional could do is less than two-thirds of the votes.

    Then we come to the ‘landmark’ March 2008 general election. The ruling coalition did its worse since May 1969. It won only 52.2% of the votes (because of Sabah and Sarawak -- if not then less than 50% like in 1969). And for the first time since May 1969 it lost its two-thirds majority in Parliament when it won only 63% of the seats.

    So, 2004 was the best since Merdeka for the ruling party. And 2008 was the worse in history. But can you see what the figures show? And that is Barisan Nasional loses votes but wins seats. And it is the seats that give it the federal government, not votes.

    Note this also.

    In the first election (Municipal elections) two years before Merdeka in 1955, Umno and its cronies swept the country in a landslide election victory (they lost only one seat to the opposition).

    In the second election (the First Parliamentary election) two years after Merdeka in 1959, the ruling coalition went down.

    In the third election in 1964 (the Second Parliamentary election), the ruling coalition went up.

    In the fourth election in 1969 (the Third Parliamentary election), the ruling coalition went down.

    In the fifth election in 1974 (the Fourth Parliamentary election), the ruling coalition went up.

    In the sixth election in 1978 (the Fifth Parliamentary election), the ruling coalition went down.

    In the seventh election in 1982 (the Sixth Parliamentary election), the ruling coalition went up.

    In the eighth election in 1986 (the Seventh Parliamentary election), the ruling coalition went down.

    In the ninth election in 1990 (the Eighth Parliamentary election), the ruling coalition went down.

    In the tenth election in 1995 (the Ninth Parliamentary election), the ruling coalition went up.

    In the eleventh election in 1999 (the Tenth Parliamentary election), the ruling coalition went down.

    In the twelfth election in 2004 (the Eleventh Parliamentary election), the ruling coalition went up.

    In the thirteenth election in 2008 (the Twelfth Parliamentary election), the ruling coalition went down.

    In the fourteenth election, (2011, 2012, or 2013) whenever it may be, (the Thirteenth Parliamentary election), the ruling coalition will go up or down? If according to the ‘trend’ since 1955 then it must certainly be UP -- unless trends lie.

    Now, the two points I want to make is this.

    The ruling coalition, Barisan Nasional, can still form the federal government even with a minimum of votes. The question would be whether it is with a two-thirds majority or a simple majority. But it will still form the government nevertheless.

    The second point is the ruling coalition yoyos from one election to another. It goes down one election and up the next. 2008 was the ‘down’ period. Will the next election be ‘up’ if this trend proves consistent?

    Ponder on that. To kick out Barisan Nasional it requires a huge mother of all Earthquake-cum-Tsunami. A slight swing is not enough. Just an Earthquake or just a Tsunami will also not do. It must be a combination of an Earthquake and a Tsunami.

    Malaysia Today’s readers are experts when it comes to grumbling, bitching, complaining, lamenting, and blowing hot air. Expert cakap banyak. What are YOU going to do about this sorry scenario? Are you prepared to bite the bullet?

    Never mind whether Raja Petra Kamarudin has done a U-turn. Never mind if Raja Petra Kamarudin has sold out or gone over to the other side. Forget about Raja Petra. Fuck Raja Petra. Raja Petra is just one man amongst 28 million Malaysians and he is no longer even living in Malaysia. What are YOU doing?

    The billion ringgit question is what are YOU going to do about this predicament other than grumble, bitch, complain, lament, blow hot air, cakap banyak and use Raja Petra Kamarudin as a punching bag to vent your frustrations at not even having the balls to reveal your true identity in Malaysia Today?
    py

Visitors found this page by searching for:

pru13

pru13 malaysiawww.pru13.com.mywww.pru13.gov.mynew date pru13 malaysiapru13.com.mywww.pru13www.pru13.compru13 whenwho will win pru13pru13 malaysia candidatesblog pru13PRU13 results malaysiapru13 pkrwhy bn and umno performed miserablypru13.comwill pakatan win the PRU13w.w.w.pru13.com.mymalaysia pru13www.pru13.govPRU13 fraudwww pru13BN vs PKR PRU13pru13 paspru13.gov.my
SEO Blog

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •