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Thread: Redelineation for Peninsula Malaysia Starts On 15 Sept 2016

   
   
       
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    Redelineation for Peninsula Malaysia Starts On 15 Sept 2016

    43
    How EC is tying the opposition's hands


    Nigel Aw & Kow Gah Chie
    17 Sep 2016, AM 8:49 (Updated 18 Sep 2016, PM 1:04)







    The Election Commission (EC), after 13 years and three election cycles, on Thursday announced the commencement of a nationwide redelineation exercise.

    Within hours, the opposition rained a torrent of criticism against the EC, accusing the commission of trying to engineer the redelineation in BN's favour.

    Much of these criticisms were focused on Selangor, where the number of voters in the parliamentary seats were dramatically altered.

    Malaysiakini looked at the patterns to see if there were any merits to claims that the EC was up to no good.
    We first listed all parliamentary seats in Selangor based on the majorities won by BN or the federal opposition, in an ascending order.

    This was then compared with how much the respective seats were enlarged, or shrunk, in terms of voters under the latest redelineation exercise.

    From the simple analysis, it was found that parliamentary seats in Selangor that were won by the opposition by more than 60 percent of the votes cast, with the exception of Puchong, were all enlarged.


    However, all marginal seats won by the opposition with a vote share of between 55 percent and 60 percent were shrunk.

    As for high risk opposition seats that were won by less than 55 percent and BN seats, the size were largely unchanged.

    Seats with substantial increases in voter size are Petaling Jaya Utara (+76.2 percent), Petaling Jaya Selatan (+62.6 percent), Klang (+45.5 percent), Kelana Jaya (+45.0) and Kota Raja (+14 percent), all of which the opposition won by over 60 percent in the 13th general election.

    The only exception was Puchong, which shrunk by 22.7 percent.

    Subang (-42.9 percent), Hulu Langat (-34.9 percent), Kapar (-30.3 percent) and Selayang (-11.4 percent) were among the seats that shrank, which the opposition won by 55 to 60 percent of the votes cast in the last general election.

    It should be noted that the planned significant change in the size of parliamentary seats in Selangor is in stark contrast with that for the other states, which at most will see an adjustment of around 10 percent for any particular parliamentary seat.

    However, in these states, the occasional odd-one-out does raise alarm bells.

    For example, in Perak, the Lumut parliamentary seat will shrink by 29.7 percent while the Beruas parliamentary seat will grow by 55.1 percent. So, what's going on?

    Under the redelineation, the opposition-held state seat of Sitiawan will be removed from the Lumut parliamentary constituency and placed under the Beruas parliamentary constituency, a neighbouring seat held by DAP.

    PKR's Mohamad Imran Abd Hamid won the Lumut parliamentary seat with a 8,168-vote majority in the last general election.

    The Sitiawan state seat was the only state constituency within Lumut that was won by the opposition, with a 11,820-vote majority.

    The other two state constituencies, Pasir Panjang and Pangkor, are both BN seats.

    The removal of Sitiawan effectively erases Mohamad Imran's majority and may even leave him with a deficit, almost guaranteeing defeat if the voting pattern remains the same.

    Meanwhile, in Johor, Pagoh was the parliamentary seat with the most drastic change in size - a reduction of 22.2 percent.

    Concurrently, the Ledang parliamentary seat will see its size grow by 18.3 percent.

    A closer analysis by Malaysiakini found that the polling stations of Umno branch leaders who supported former Umno leader Muhyiddin Yassin are also to be moved out of Pagoh.

    These leaders, from Grisek; Parit Medan; Kurnia Sakti and Kundang Ulu, quit their positions in June, to protest Muhyiddin's sacking from the party with one even torching his uniform.

    Kundang Ulu, Parit Medan and Kurnia Sakti fall under the Kundang Ulu polling station while Grisek is under the Grisek polling station.

    Both polling stations, and several others, were moved out of Pagoh and placed under the neighbouring Ledang parliamentary seat.

    These trends and anomalies highlight legitimate questions on the independence and professionalism of the EC in this redelineation exercise.

    Your KiniGuide to the redelineation exercise


    py

  2. #2
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    Your KiniGuide to the redelineation exercise




    11 comments KiniGuide Published 17 Sep 2016, 9:15 am Updated 17 Sep 2016, 10:27 am











    KINIGUIDE The Election Commission (EC) finally posted an official notice on the redelineation exercise on Thursday, officially kicking off the much anticipated process of electoral boundary changes for Sabah and Peninsular Malaysia.

    In this instalment of KiniGuide, we dwell into the redelineation process and take a look at some of the problems that have cropped up in the past.

    What is redelineation?

    Every corner of Malaysian territory is part of one of 222 parliamentary constituencies, which are further subdivided into two or more state constituencies, which in turn are divided into polling districts and finally, voting localities.

    Each parliamentary constituency is represented by a member of Parliament at the Dewan Rakyat, and each state constituency is represented by a state assemblyperson at its respective state legislature.

    A redelineation exercise is essentially a review of the territory encompassed by these constituencies to see if its boundaries are still relevant for the current times and make changes to the boundaries, if necessary.

    This could entail moving voters from one constituency to another, or even the creation of new constituencies or removal of existing constituencies.

    Why should I care?

    There had been allegations in the past that the redelineation process had been abused to favour one party over another in an election.

    One was through malapportionment. This entails having vast differences between the number of voters from one constituency to another. This is unfair because it dilutes the value of voters in larger constituencies in favour of those voting in smaller ones.

    An example of this can be seen in the EC’s proposal for the parliamentary constituencies of Selangor.

    Under the proposal, Damansara would have 150,439 voters, which is four times more the number of voters in Sabak Bernam (37,126 voters) – a difference of more than 400 percent. The international best practice is to keep such discrepancies to within 20 percent of the average number of voters.



    Another way to skew election results through the redelineation process is through gerrymandering.

    This entails the redrawing of electoral boundaries to concentrate the supporters of one party in a handful of constituencies, while shifting supporters of an opposing party into many more other constituencies. This can result in some oddly shaped constituency boundaries.A video explaining gerrymandering can be found here.

    One way these two problems have manifested can be seen in the 13th general election.

    The Pakatan Rakyat opposition coalition garnered 51 percent of the popular vote in the 13th general election in 2013, but only won 40 percent of the parliamentary seats and was unable to form the government.

    What are some of the proposed changes?

    In total, the boundaries of 128 out of 222 parliamentary constituencies would be changed. The top three states affected are Johor (21 constituencies), Selangor (18 constituencies), and Perak (17 constituencies). Kuala Lumpur and Terengganu would also see all the parliamentary constituency boundaries altered...


    py

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